The most recent market analyses by PriceHubble clearly show that the lockdown due to Covid-19 in Germany had a significant effect on the residential property market and in particular on the supply side: The number of newly advertised online sales offers drops by 25 percentage points in the lockdown phase and the number of online rental offers by 14 percentage points compared to the development in the same period in 2019. In contrast, offer prices for residential property remain largely stable across all segments and are slowly picking up speed again. These latest developments and a survey of real estate experts are already pointing to a recovery of the market. All in all, the experts are calm and believe they are coping well with the crisis.
With this analysis and the provision of the survey results, PriceHubble aims to contribute solid facts and thus certainty to the widely vague discourse on how the current Covid 19 crisis has impacted and will impact the real estate market. To this end, over 120.000 active offers per day were analysed and experts in the core markets of Germany, Switzerland and France were interviewed. "The analysis clearly shows that the lockdown has not left the residential property market unscathed, but that the market has got off lightly so far. And even if it will still take some time until the dynamics of last year can be continued, this first recovery is a good sign for all market participants, but especially for real estate agents," Christian Crain, Managing Director of PriceHubble Deutschland GmbH, explains the analysis and survey results.
The restraint after the lockdown is giving way, dynamics and prices are picking up again across all segments
In the period marked by the lockdown, from mid-March to the end of April 2020 ("lockdown"), significantly fewer listings are placed online every day than at the beginning of the year (January - mid-March). The average daily number of advertisements placed decreases by 19% for sales offers and by 10% for rental offers, while this figure rose by 6% for sales offers and by 4% for rental offers in the same period last year. This corresponds to an effect from the corona measures (compared to the previous year) of -25% for sales offers and -14% for rental offers.
However, there is light on the horizon as the supply market has recently recovered. The number of online listings has been developing positively again since the end of April: rental offers have increased by 18% and sales offers by as much as 25%.
Offer prices remain largely stable for residential properties over the Covid 19 period (March to May) to date: rents are developing slightly positively by 1.6% (previous year +0.1%), sales prices for apartments are rising by 0.6% (previous year +2.1%) and house prices by 0.3% (previous year +2.3%).
Real estate experts expect short-term slumps, but a rapid recovery
The majority of the real estate experts surveyed (56%) assume that the pandemic will have a moderately negative impact on their business in the next 12 months and expect prices and rents to remain relatively stable. One quarter of the respondents even do not expect a significant impact on their business.
Even if the slump is clearly noticeable for many, because, according to the experts, no one buys a property without being able to inspect it, the respondents are calm and believe that they can cope well with the crisis with the help of digital possibilities. The optimism, however, is based on the hope that there will not be a second wave of infection.
See the full study here (German only) and the Media Release (German only)